States › Virginia › Caroline County
Caroline County, Virginia
Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.
NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 1 Oct 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.
The NCEI record lists 433 events for Caroline County, Virginia, between 1950 and 2026; damaging wind account for the largest share.
That is 82.1 events per 100 square miles, below the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 138.2 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.
16 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 0 deaths and 6 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $1.8M and crop damage at $3.6M.
FEMA has designated the county in 24 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).
National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 8 claims since 1978, of which 5 were paid, totalling $42K (about $8K per paid claim). FEMA counts 59 residential flood policies in force.
FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Very Low" and its expected annual loss as "Very Low" ($8.3M a year across 18 hazards).
49 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 0 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.
Compared with Virginia and the United States
| Measure | Caroline County | Virginia | US |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recorded events since 1950 | 433 | 57,789 | 1,977,440 |
| Events per 100 square miles | 82.1 | 146.4 | 56.0 |
| Events per 10,000 residents | 138.2 | 66.9 | 59.6 |
| Events in the last 12 months | 16 | 1,941 | 62,008 |
| Deaths recorded by NCEI | 0 | 239 | 26,435 |
| Property damage (NCEI estimates) | $1.8M | $2.7B | $575B |
| NFIP claims per 1,000 residents | 0.3 | 5.9 | 8.1 |
| Average paid NFIP claim | $8K | $19K | $43K |
| Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years | 1.7 | 4.3 | 16.1 |
County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.
Events by decade
Trend: 296 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 114 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.
Events by type
Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.
Largest recorded events
| Date | Event type | Group | Magnitude | Property damage | Crop damage | Deaths | Injuries | Geography |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2001 | Lightning | Lightning | — | — | — | — | 2 | County |
| 1 Apr 1998 | Tornado | Tornado | F2 | $200K | — | — | 1 | County |
| 12 Aug 1977 | Tornado | Tornado | — | $25K | — | — | 1 | County |
| 8 Jul 1977 | Tornado | Tornado | — | $25K | — | — | 1 | County |
| 24 Jul 1999 | Thunderstorm Wind | Wind | — | $20K | — | — | 1 | County |
| 1 Oct 1998 | Drought | Drought | — | — | $2.5M | — | — | Forecast zone |
| 1 Nov 1998 | Drought | Drought | — | — | $1.0M | — | — | Forecast zone |
| 8 Aug 2024 | Tornado | Tornado | EF1 | $200K | — | — | — | County |
| 27 Aug 2011 | Tropical Storm | Tropical | — | $25K | $100K | — | — | Forecast zone |
| 16 Sep 1999 | Flash Flood | Flood | — | $122K | — | — | — | County |
| 19 Jun 2014 | Thunderstorm Wind | Wind | 58 mph | $100K | — | — | — | County |
Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.
Federal disaster declarations
| Declared | Number | Type | Incident | Title | Programs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jan 2026 | EM-3631 | Emergency | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm | Public assistance |
| 11 Mar 2022 | DR-4644 | Major disaster | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm | Public assistance |
| 10 May 2021 | DR-4602 | Major disaster | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms | Public assistance |
| 2 Apr 2020 | DR-4512 | Major disaster | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic | Individual assistance, Public assistance |
| 13 Mar 2020 | EM-3448 | Emergency | Biological | Covid-19 | Public assistance |
| 11 Sep 2018 | EM-3403 | Emergency | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence | Public assistance |
| 7 Mar 2016 | DR-4262 | Major disaster | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm | Public assistance |
| 29 Oct 2012 | EM-3359 | Emergency | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy | Public assistance |
| 17 Nov 2011 | DR-4045 | Major disaster | Severe Storm | The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee | Public assistance |
| 3 Sep 2011 | DR-4024 | Major disaster | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene | Public assistance |
| 27 Apr 2010 | DR-1905 | Major disaster | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms | Public assistance |
| 16 Feb 2010 | DR-1874 | Major disaster | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm | Public assistance |
| 22 Sep 2006 | DR-1661 | Major disaster | Severe Storm | Tropical Depression Ernesto, Severe Storms And Flooding | Public assistance |
| 12 Sep 2005 | EM-3240 | Emergency | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation | Public assistance |
| 18 Sep 2003 | DR-1491 | Major disaster | Hurricane | Hurricane Isabel | Individual assistance, Public assistance |
| 28 Feb 2000 | DR-1318 | Major disaster | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms | Public assistance |
| 18 Sep 1999 | DR-1293 | Major disaster | Hurricane | Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster Declarations | Public assistance |
| 13 Jan 1996 | DR-1086 | Major disaster | Snowstorm | Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm) | Public assistance |
| 11 Apr 1994 | DR-1021 | Major disaster | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Ice Storm | Public assistance |
| 10 Mar 1994 | DR-1014 | Major disaster | Snowstorm | Severe Ice Storms, Flooding | Public assistance |
| 25 Mar 1993 | EM-3112 | Emergency | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm | Public assistance |
| 23 Jul 1977 | EM-3046 | Emergency | Drought | Drought | Public assistance |
| 23 Jun 1972 | DR-339 | Major disaster | Flood | Tropical Storm Agnes | Individual assistance, Public assistance |
| 23 Aug 1969 | DR-274 | Major disaster | Hurricane | Severe Storms & Flooding | Individual assistance, Public assistance |
Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.
Flood insurance claims
| Year of loss | Claims | Paid claims | Amount paid | Average paid |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 0 | $0 | — |
| 2014 | 1 | 0 | $0 | — |
| 2010 | 1 | 1 | $11,532 | $11,532 |
| 2004 | 1 | 1 | $10,676 | $10,676 |
| 1996 | 1 | 1 | $7,243 | $7,243 |
| 1985 | 2 | 2 | $12,776 | $6,388 |
| 1979 | 1 | 0 | $0 | — |
OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).
National Risk Index
| Hazard (NRI) | Risk rating | Expected annual loss |
|---|---|---|
| Inland flooding | $3,479,463 | |
| Hurricane | $1,846,217 | |
| Drought | $925,849 | |
| Tornado | $580,641 | |
| Earthquake | $504,613 | |
| Strong wind | $305,891 | |
| Heat wave | $245,842 | |
| Lightning | $163,026 | |
| Hail | $126,143 | |
| Cold wave | $41,818 | |
| Winter weather | $26,323 | |
| Ice storm | $26,047 | |
| Wildfire | $8,058 | |
| Landslide | $2,828 | |
| Coastal flooding | $2,712 |
FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.
Hurricane and tropical storm passes
| Storm | Year | Closest approach | Max wind while within 100 mi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elsa | 2021 | 85 mi | 52 mph |
| Isaias | 2020 | 38 mi | 69 mph |
| Zeta | 2020 | 49 mi | 52 mph |
| Nestor | 2019 | 80 mi | 46 mph |
| Andrea | 2013 | 77 mi | 46 mph |
| Hanna | 2008 | 39 mi | 52 mph |
| Ernesto | 2006 | 37 mi | 46 mph |
| Gaston | 2004 | 71 mi | 40 mph |
| Isabel | 2003 | 93 mi | 75 mph |
| Bertha | 1996 | 71 mi | 69 mph |
| Danielle | 1992 | 97 mi | 46 mph |
| Dean | 1983 | 92 mi | 46 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1963 | 64 mi | 46 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1961 | 98 mi | 52 mph |
| Brenda | 1960 | 85 mi | 58 mph |
| Cindy | 1959 | 94 mi | 46 mph |
| Connie | 1955 | 67 mi | 69 mph |
| Diane | 1955 | 67 mi | 52 mph |
| Able | 1952 | 68 mi | 52 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1949 | 61 mi | 58 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1945 | 27 mi | 40 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1944 | 16 mi | 40 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1944 | 69 mi | 46 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1943 | 52 mi | 63 mph |
| Unnamed Atlantic storm | 1934 | 74 mi | 46 mph |
HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.
Questions and answers
How often does it hail in Caroline County, VA?
NCEI records 32 hail events in Caroline County since 1950, in 15 different years; that is about 0.4 recorded events a year. 9 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.
Has Caroline County had a tornado?
Yes. NCEI records 15 tornadoes in Caroline County since 1950, 1 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 0.
When was the last federal disaster declaration for Caroline County?
23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 24 declarations since 1953.
How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Caroline County, and how much was paid?
8 NFIP claims since 1978, 5 of them paid, for $42K in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.
Is Caroline County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?
FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Very Low" for overall risk, "Very Low" for expected annual loss, "Relatively Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.
How does Caroline County compare with the rest of Virginia?
82.1 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 0.3 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.
Provenance
Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 1 Oct 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 1 Oct 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.