States › Virginia › Stafford County

Stafford County, Virginia

Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.

FIPS 51179 · 160,877 residents (2021) · 269 sq mi · dominant hazard Wind

Hail · 74Tornado · 15Flood · 111Wind · 277Winter · 115

Stafford County within Virginia. Dots: HailTornadoFloodWind event locations in the kept record. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 1 Oct 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.

Stafford County, Virginia, has 816 weather events in the NCEI Storm Events record since 1950, most of them damaging wind.

That is 303.1 events per 100 square miles, above the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 50.7 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.

14 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 3 deaths and 5 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $29M and crop damage at $1.1M.

FEMA has designated the county in 20 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).

National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 164 claims since 1978, of which 99 were paid, totalling $1.4M (about $14K per paid claim). FEMA counts 377 residential flood policies in force.

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Relatively Low" and its expected annual loss as "Relatively Low" ($35M a year across 18 hazards).

37 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 2 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.

14events, last 12 monthsto 30 Jun 2026

816events since 19503 deaths, 5 injuries recorded

20disaster declarationslast 23 Jan 2026

164NFIP flood claims$1.4M paid

Compared with Virginia and the United States

Measure	Stafford County	Virginia	US
Recorded events since 1950	816	57,789	1,977,440
Events per 100 square miles	303.1	146.4	56.0
Events per 10,000 residents	50.7	66.9	59.6
Events in the last 12 months	14	1,941	62,008
Deaths recorded by NCEI	3	239	26,435
Property damage (NCEI estimates)	$29M	$2.7B	$575B
NFIP claims per 1,000 residents	1.0	5.9	8.1
Average paid NFIP claim	$14K	$19K	$43K
Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years	11.1	4.3	16.1

County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.

Events by decade

Hail: 2Tornado: 1Wind: 1

Hail: 1Tornado: 1Wind: 8

Hail: 2Wind: 2

Hail: 9Tornado: 1Flood: 8Wind: 28Winter: 11Tropical: 2Heat: 8Cold: 1Drought: 8Lightning: 1Other: 1

Hail: 23Tornado: 9Flood: 17Wind: 48Winter: 28Tropical: 2Heat: 18Cold: 17Drought: 4Lightning: 2Fog: 21Other: 8

Hail: 30Tornado: 2Flood: 64Wind: 118Winter: 57Tropical: 1Heat: 39Cold: 20Fog: 36

Hail: 7Tornado: 1Flood: 22Wind: 72Winter: 19Tropical: 1Heat: 12Cold: 10Fog: 12

01950s41960s101970s41980s781990s1972000s3672010s1562020s

Recorded events in Stafford County by decade and hazard group. HailTornadoFloodWindWinterTropicalHeatColdDroughtLightningFogOther NCEI recorded only tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm wind before 1996.

Trend: 598 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 192 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.

Events by type

Wind277

Winter115

Flood111

Heat77

Hail74

Fog69

Cold48

Tornado15

Drought12

Other9

Tropical6

Lightning3

Hazard	Events	Deaths	Share of state's events
■ Wind	277	1	1.2%	detail
■ Winter	115	2	1.1%	detail
■ Flood	111	—	1.4%	detail
■ Heat	77	—	5.8%
■ Hail	74	—	1.2%	detail
■ Fog	69	—	4.0%
■ Cold	48	—	2.7%
■ Tornado	15	—	1.6%	detail
■ Drought	12	—	1.4%
■ Other	9	—	0.3%
■ Tropical	6	—	1.9%
■ Lightning	3	—	0.6%

Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.

Largest recorded events

Date	Event type	Group	Magnitude	Property damage	Crop damage	Deaths	Injuries	Geography
5 Feb 2004	Winter Weather	Winter	—	—	—	2	1	Forecast zone
15 Apr 2019	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	58 mph	—	—	1	1	County
18 Sep 2003	Tropical Storm	Tropical	—	$14M	$50K	—	1	Forecast zone
12 Jan 1996	Heavy Snow	Winter	—	$10K	—	—	1	Forecast zone
12 Jul 1992	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	0 mph	—	—	—	1	County
8 May 2008	Tornado	Tornado	EF2	$10M	—	—	—	County
7 May 2004	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	81 mph	$1.5M	—	—	—	County
23 Apr 1999	Hail	Hail	1.75 in	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
1 Aug 1999	Drought	Drought	—	—	$1.0M	—	—	Forecast zone
29 Jul 2021	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	90 mph	$700K	—	—	—	County
6 Sep 1996	Storm Surge/Tide	Tropical	—	$250K	—	—	—	County
8 Aug 2024	Tornado	Tornado	EF1	$250K	—	—	—	County
6 Sep 1996	Flood	Flood	—	$100K	—	—	—	Forecast zone
27 Aug 2011	Tropical Storm	Tropical	—	$100K	—	—	—	Forecast zone

Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.

Federal disaster declarations

Declared	Number	Type	Incident	Title	Programs
23 Jan 2026	EM-3631	Emergency	Winter Storm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
11 Mar 2022	DR-4644	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
2 Apr 2020	DR-4512	Major disaster	Biological	Covid-19 Pandemic	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Mar 2020	EM-3448	Emergency	Biological	Covid-19	Public assistance
11 Sep 2018	EM-3403	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Florence	Public assistance
7 Mar 2016	DR-4262	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
29 Oct 2012	EM-3359	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
27 Jul 2012	DR-4072	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds	Public assistance
27 Apr 2010	DR-1905	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms	Public assistance
16 Feb 2010	DR-1874	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
12 Sep 2005	EM-3240	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Public assistance
18 Sep 2003	DR-1491	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Isabel	Individual assistance, Public assistance
28 Feb 2000	DR-1318	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storms	Public assistance
6 Sep 1996	DR-1135	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Fran And Associated Severe Storm Cond	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Jan 1996	DR-1086	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)	Public assistance
25 Mar 1993	EM-3112	Emergency	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
9 Nov 1985	DR-755	Major disaster	Flood	Severe Storms & Flooding	Individual assistance
23 Jul 1977	EM-3046	Emergency	Drought	Drought	Public assistance
26 Jan 1977	DR-525	Major disaster	Freezing	Ice Conditions	Individual assistance
23 Jun 1972	DR-339	Major disaster	Flood	Tropical Storm Agnes	Individual assistance, Public assistance

Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.

Flood insurance claims

197820022026

NFIP claims by year of loss in Stafford County, 1978 to 2026 (hover for the amount paid).

Claims since 1978164

Paid claims99

Total paid$1.4M

Average paid claim$14K

Repetitive-loss properties101 severe

Residential policies in force3770.8% of 49,917 structures

Year of loss	Claims	Paid claims	Amount paid	Average paid
2025	3	0	$0	—
2024	2	1	$6,489	$6,489
2021	3	1	$6,279	$6,279
2020	4	2	$2,868	$1,434
2019	5	2	$20,795	$10,397
2018	23	21	$421,907	$20,091
2017	2	1	$1,155	$1,155
2016	9	2	$1,949	$974
2014	9	5	$65,404	$13,081
2013	2	0	$0	—
2011	4	0	$0	—
2010	2	1	$2,186	$2,186
2009	2	1	$2,727	$2,727
2008	11	4	$58,715	$14,679
2007	1	1	$1,811	$1,811
2006	4	3	$66,445	$22,148
2005	4	2	$3,125	$1,563
2004	1	1	$2,995	$2,995
2003	35	25	$434,402	$17,376
2000	3	1	$1,619	$1,619
1998	1	0	$0	—
1996	17	10	$150,290	$15,029
1995	8	7	$78,467	$11,210
1994	1	1	$5,031	$5,031
1993	2	2	$4,034	$2,017

OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).

National Risk Index

Overall riskRelatively Lowscore 65.0 of 100

Expected annual loss$35MRelatively Low

Social vulnerabilityVery Low

Community resilienceRelatively Moderate

Hazard (NRI)	Risk rating	Expected annual loss
Inland flooding	Relatively Moderate	$23,617,467
Strong wind	Relatively Moderate	$2,160,863
Heat wave	Relatively Moderate	$2,043,165
Hurricane	Relatively Low	$2,009,841
Tornado	Relatively Low	$1,923,361
Earthquake	Relatively Low	$1,186,917
Lightning	Relatively Moderate	$864,795
Hail	Relatively Low	$600,116
Drought	Relatively Low	$269,697
Winter weather	Relatively Moderate	$154,968
Cold wave	Very Low	$154,413
Coastal flooding	Relatively Low	$93,090
Ice storm	Relatively Low	$83,305
Wildfire	Very Low	$9,296
Landslide	Very Low	$3,195

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.

Hurricane and tropical storm passes

Tracks within 100 miles37

Tracks within 50 miles17

Hurricane strength within 50 miles2

Storm	Year	Closest approach	Max wind while within 100 mi
Isaias	2020	61 mi	69 mph
Zeta	2020	59 mi	52 mph
Andrea	2013	98 mi	46 mph
Hanna	2008	60 mi	52 mph
Ernesto	2006	44 mi	46 mph
Gaston	2004	97 mi	40 mph
Isabel	2003	79 mi	58 mph
Bertha	1996	74 mi	69 mph
David	1979	78 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1963	70 mi	46 mph
Connie	1955	66 mi	69 mph
Diane	1955	43 mi	52 mph
Able	1952	66 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1949	42 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1945	26 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1944	43 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1944	96 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1943	47 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1934	47 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1933	24 mi	75 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1929	26 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	74 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	29 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1915	23 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1902	64 mi	40 mph

HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.

ZIP codes with flood claims

22554 87
22405 52
22556 23

ZIP codes whose NFIP claims carry this county's code, with the number of claims. Five or more claims are needed for a ZIP page to be indexed.

Questions and answers

How often does it hail in Stafford County, VA?

NCEI records 74 hail events in Stafford County since 1950, in 27 different years; that is about 1.0 recorded events a year. 10 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.

Has Stafford County had a tornado?

Yes. NCEI records 15 tornadoes in Stafford County since 1950, 1 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 0.

When was the last federal disaster declaration for Stafford County?

23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 20 declarations since 1953.

How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Stafford County, and how much was paid?

164 NFIP claims since 1978, 99 of them paid, for $1.4M in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.

Is Stafford County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?

FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Relatively Low" for overall risk, "Relatively Low" for expected annual loss, "Very Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.

How does Stafford County compare with the rest of Virginia?

303.1 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 1.0 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.

Provenance

Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 1 Oct 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 1 Oct 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.