States › Virginia › Fairfax County

Fairfax County, Virginia

Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.

FIPS 51059 · 1,139,720 residents (2021) · 391 sq mi · dominant hazard Wind

Hail · 182Tornado · 22Flood · 517Wind · 736Winter · 0

Fairfax County within Virginia. Dots: HailTornadoFloodWind event locations in the kept record. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 1 Oct 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.

The NCEI record lists 1,497 events for Fairfax County, Virginia, between 1950 and 2026; damaging wind account for the largest share.

That is 382.8 events per 100 square miles, above the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 13.1 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.

47 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 8 deaths and 63 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $77M and crop damage at $48K.

FEMA has designated the county in 19 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).

National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 1,488 claims since 1978, of which 884 were paid, totalling $16M (about $19K per paid claim). FEMA counts 3,582 residential flood policies in force.

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Relatively High" and its expected annual loss as "Relatively High" ($219M a year across 18 hazards).

37 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 2 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.

47events, last 12 monthsto 30 Jun 2026

1,497events since 19508 deaths, 63 injuries recorded

19disaster declarationslast 23 Jan 2026

1,488NFIP flood claims$16M paid

Compared with Virginia and the United States

Measure	Fairfax County	Virginia	US
Recorded events since 1950	1,497	57,789	1,977,440
Events per 100 square miles	382.8	146.4	56.0
Events per 10,000 residents	13.1	66.9	59.6
Events in the last 12 months	47	1,941	62,008
Deaths recorded by NCEI	8	239	26,435
Property damage (NCEI estimates)	$77M	$2.7B	$575B
NFIP claims per 1,000 residents	1.3	5.9	8.1
Average paid NFIP claim	$19K	$19K	$43K
Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years	8.9	4.3	16.1

County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.

Events by decade

Tornado: 1Wind: 2

Hail: 3Tornado: 1Wind: 2

Hail: 4Tornado: 2Wind: 11

Hail: 10Tornado: 3Wind: 20

Hail: 40Tornado: 4Flood: 6Wind: 51Tropical: 1Lightning: 4Other: 3

Hail: 56Tornado: 2Flood: 50Wind: 119Lightning: 11Other: 20

Hail: 55Tornado: 7Flood: 273Wind: 284

Hail: 14Tornado: 2Flood: 188Wind: 247Other: 1

31950s61960s171970s331980s1091990s2582000s6192010s4522020s

Recorded events in Fairfax County by decade and hazard group. HailTornadoFloodWindTropicalLightningOther NCEI recorded only tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm wind before 1996.

Trend: 1,170 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 266 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.

Events by type

Wind736

Flood517

Hail182

Other24

Tornado22

Lightning15

Tropical1

Hazard	Events	Deaths	Share of state's events
■ Wind	736	5	3.2%	detail
■ Flood	517	2	6.3%	detail
■ Hail	182	—	2.9%	detail
■ Other	24	—	0.9%
■ Tornado	22	1	2.4%	detail
■ Lightning	15	—	2.8%
■ Tropical	1	—	0.3%

Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.

Largest recorded events

Date	Event type	Group	Magnitude	Property damage	Crop damage	Deaths	Injuries	Geography
5 Sep 1979	Tornado	Tornado	F3	$2.5M	—	1	6	County
16 May 2025	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	75 mph	$250K	—	1	—	County
16 May 2025	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	64 mph	$25K	—	1	—	County
4 Jun 2008	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	58 mph	$10K	—	1	—	County
8 Sep 2011	Flash Flood	Flood	—	—	—	1	—	County
8 Sep 2011	Flash Flood	Flood	—	—	—	1	—	County
29 Jun 2012	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	70 mph	—	—	1	—	County
29 Jun 2012	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	70 mph	—	—	1	—	County
1 Apr 1973	Tornado	Tornado	F3	$25M	—	—	37	County
27 Jul 2008	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	58 mph	$5K	—	—	3	County
2 Jul 2006	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	69 mph	$5.0M	—	—	2	County
5 Aug 2010	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	60 mph	$20K	—	—	2	County
19 Nov 2003	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	58 mph	$3K	—	—	2	County
23 Jul 1991	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	0 mph	—	—	—	2	County
24 Jun 1996	Tornado	Tornado	F2	$4.0M	—	—	1	County
17 Sep 2004	Tornado	Tornado	F2	$2.5M	—	—	1	County
25 Jun 2006	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$11M	—	—	—	County
13 Jun 1997	Lightning	Lightning	—	$40K	—	—	1	County
15 Jun 1998	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	—	$15K	—	—	1	County
18 Oct 1990	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	0 mph	—	—	—	1	County

Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.

Federal disaster declarations

Declared	Number	Type	Incident	Title	Programs
23 Jan 2026	EM-3631	Emergency	Winter Storm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
2 Apr 2020	DR-4512	Major disaster	Biological	Covid-19 Pandemic	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Mar 2020	EM-3448	Emergency	Biological	Covid-19	Public assistance
11 Sep 2018	EM-3403	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Florence	Public assistance
7 Mar 2016	DR-4262	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
29 Oct 2012	EM-3359	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
17 Nov 2011	DR-4045	Major disaster	Severe Storm	The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee	Public assistance
27 Apr 2010	DR-1905	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms	Public assistance
16 Feb 2010	DR-1874	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
13 Jul 2006	DR-1655	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Storms, Tornadoes, And Flooding	Public assistance
12 Sep 2005	EM-3240	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Public assistance
18 Sep 2003	DR-1491	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Isabel	Individual assistance, Public assistance
27 Mar 2003	DR-1458	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, And Mudslide	Public assistance
28 Feb 2000	DR-1318	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storms	Public assistance
18 Sep 1999	DR-1293	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Floyd Major Disaster Declarations	Individual assistance
13 Jan 1996	DR-1086	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)	Public assistance
25 Mar 1993	EM-3112	Emergency	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
26 Jan 1977	DR-525	Major disaster	Freezing	Ice Conditions	Individual assistance
23 Jun 1972	DR-339	Major disaster	Flood	Tropical Storm Agnes	Individual assistance, Public assistance

Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.

Flood insurance claims

197820022026

NFIP claims by year of loss in Fairfax County, 1978 to 2026 (hover for the amount paid).

Claims since 19781,488

Paid claims884

Total paid$16M

Average paid claim$19K

Repetitive-loss properties970 severe

Residential policies in force3,5821.1% of 337,120 structures

Year of loss	Claims	Paid claims	Amount paid	Average paid
2026	2	0	$0	—
2025	8	4	$35,721	$8,930
2024	12	4	$37,811	$9,453
2023	5	2	$4,580	$2,290
2022	12	4	$37,590	$9,397
2021	47	29	$357,415	$12,325
2020	38	16	$425,904	$26,619
2019	100	68	$3,013,964	$44,323
2018	76	41	$206,054	$5,026
2017	20	10	$30,728	$3,073
2016	20	3	$24,476	$8,159
2015	39	20	$60,091	$3,005
2014	65	38	$178,958	$4,709
2013	44	23	$96,175	$4,182
2012	25	5	$12,759	$2,552
2011	333	247	$3,172,140	$12,843
2010	18	4	$24,792	$6,198
2009	15	6	$39,643	$6,607
2008	70	35	$447,919	$12,798
2007	5	1	$1,427	$1,427
2006	132	112	$2,769,199	$24,725
2005	11	2	$3,142	$1,571
2004	10	3	$33,956	$11,319
2003	178	117	$4,636,260	$39,626
2002	5	1	$1,890	$1,890

OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).

National Risk Index

Overall riskRelatively Highscore 94.7 of 100

Expected annual loss$219MRelatively High

Social vulnerabilityVery Low

Community resilienceRelatively Moderate

Hazard (NRI)	Risk rating	Expected annual loss
Inland flooding	Relatively High	$154,720,376
Hurricane	Relatively Moderate	$18,003,739
Heat wave	Relatively High	$12,529,322
Earthquake	Relatively Moderate	$11,070,485
Cold wave	Relatively Moderate	$5,898,380
Strong wind	Relatively High	$4,308,237
Hail	Relatively High	$4,025,003
Lightning	Very High	$3,892,524
Tornado	Relatively Low	$1,923,380
Winter weather	Very High	$1,819,068
Ice storm	Relatively Moderate	$617,361
Coastal flooding	Relatively Low	$230,060
Drought	Relatively Low	$46,917
Wildfire	Very Low	$24,366
Landslide	Relatively Low	$10,371

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.

Hurricane and tropical storm passes

Tracks within 100 miles37

Tracks within 50 miles14

Hurricane strength within 50 miles2

Storm	Year	Closest approach	Max wind while within 100 mi
Isaias	2020	82 mi	69 mph
Zeta	2020	87 mi	52 mph
Sandy	2012	92 mi	63 mph
Hanna	2008	78 mi	52 mph
Ernesto	2006	31 mi	46 mph
Isabel	2003	89 mi	58 mph
Bertha	1996	73 mi	69 mph
Danielle	1992	91 mi	46 mph
David	1979	71 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1963	73 mi	46 mph
Connie	1955	41 mi	69 mph
Diane	1955	45 mi	46 mph
Hazel	1954	95 mi	81 mph
Able	1952	47 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1949	52 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1945	39 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1944	62 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1943	43 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1934	22 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1933	10 mi	63 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1929	39 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	82 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	59 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1915	25 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1902	94 mi	40 mph

HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.

ZIP codes with flood claims

22303 230
22307 144
22042 106
22309 80
22101 76
22308 51
22003 47
22015 45
22079 44
22180 40
22031 39
22310 37
22153 35
22066 34
22032 33
22152 31
22306 29
22102 28
22182 28
20171 25
22043 25
22044 25
20120 24
20170 23
20191 21
22150 21
22181 21
22151 20
22312 19
22041 17
20124 15
22039 14
22124 12
22315 11
20121 6
20151 6
20190 6
22033 5

ZIP codes whose NFIP claims carry this county's code, with the number of claims. Five or more claims are needed for a ZIP page to be indexed.

Questions and answers

How often does it hail in Fairfax County, VA?

NCEI records 182 hail events in Fairfax County since 1950, in 47 different years; that is about 2.4 recorded events a year. 34 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.

Has Fairfax County had a tornado?

Yes. NCEI records 22 tornadoes in Fairfax County since 1950, 6 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 1.

When was the last federal disaster declaration for Fairfax County?

23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 19 declarations since 1953.

How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Fairfax County, and how much was paid?

1,488 NFIP claims since 1978, 884 of them paid, for $16M in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.

Is Fairfax County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?

FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Relatively High" for overall risk, "Relatively High" for expected annual loss, "Very Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.

How does Fairfax County compare with the rest of Virginia?

382.8 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 1.3 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.

Provenance

Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 1 Oct 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 1 Oct 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.