States › Virginia › Prince William County

Prince William County, Virginia

Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.

FIPS 51153 · 484,472 residents (2021) · 335 sq mi · dominant hazard Wind

Hail · 86Tornado · 15Flood · 270Wind · 367Winter · 130

Prince William County within Virginia. Dots: HailTornadoFloodWind event locations in the kept record. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 1 Oct 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.

Between 1950 and 2026, NCEI recorded 1,094 storm events in Prince William County, Virginia, led by damaging wind.

That is 326.3 events per 100 square miles, above the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 22.6 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.

28 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 4 deaths and 27 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $16M and crop damage at $157K.

FEMA has designated the county in 20 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).

National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 485 claims since 1978, of which 308 were paid, totalling $5.8M (about $19K per paid claim). FEMA counts 935 residential flood policies in force.

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Relatively Moderate" and its expected annual loss as "Relatively Moderate" ($69M a year across 18 hazards).

33 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 2 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.

28events, last 12 monthsto 30 Jun 2026

1,094events since 19504 deaths, 27 injuries recorded

20disaster declarationslast 23 Jan 2026

485NFIP flood claims$5.8M paid

Compared with Virginia and the United States

Measure	Prince William County	Virginia	US
Recorded events since 1950	1,094	57,789	1,977,440
Events per 100 square miles	326.3	146.4	56.0
Events per 10,000 residents	22.6	66.9	59.6
Events in the last 12 months	28	1,941	62,008
Deaths recorded by NCEI	4	239	26,435
Property damage (NCEI estimates)	$16M	$2.7B	$575B
NFIP claims per 1,000 residents	1.0	5.9	8.1
Average paid NFIP claim	$19K	$19K	$43K
Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years	10.1	4.3	16.1

County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.

Events by decade

Hail: 2Tornado: 1Wind: 1

Hail: 1Tornado: 1Wind: 7

Hail: 19Tornado: 1Flood: 7Wind: 48Winter: 17Tropical: 2Heat: 5Cold: 2Drought: 8Lightning: 5Other: 2

Hail: 24Tornado: 7Flood: 29Wind: 53Winter: 28Tropical: 1Heat: 13Cold: 12Drought: 3Lightning: 2Fog: 18Other: 16

Hail: 33Tornado: 5Flood: 153Wind: 167Winter: 71Tropical: 1Heat: 36Cold: 25Lightning: 1Fog: 45

Hail: 7Flood: 81Wind: 91Winter: 14Tropical: 1Heat: 5Cold: 5Fog: 17Other: 1

01950s01960s41970s91980s1161990s2062000s5372010s2222020s

Recorded events in Prince William County by decade and hazard group. HailTornadoFloodWindWinterTropicalHeatColdDroughtLightningFogOther NCEI recorded only tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm wind before 1996.

Trend: 845 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 229 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.

Events by type

Wind367

Flood270

Winter130

Hail86

Fog80

Heat59

Cold44

Other19

Tornado15

Drought11

Lightning8

Tropical5

Hazard	Events	Deaths	Share of state's events
■ Wind	367	1	1.6%	detail
■ Flood	270	—	3.3%	detail
■ Winter	130	1	1.2%	detail
■ Hail	86	—	1.4%	detail
■ Fog	80	—	4.7%
■ Heat	59	1	4.4%
■ Cold	44	—	2.5%
■ Other	19	—	0.7%
■ Tornado	15	1	1.6%	detail
■ Drought	11	—	1.3%
■ Lightning	8	—	1.5%
■ Tropical	5	—	1.6%

Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.

Largest recorded events

Date	Event type	Group	Magnitude	Property damage	Crop damage	Deaths	Injuries	Geography
26 Jan 1978	Tornado	Tornado	F3	$250K	—	1	10	County
29 Jul 2023	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	60 mph	$250K	—	1	—	County
18 Jul 2005	Heat	Heat	—	—	—	1	—	Forecast zone
29 Jan 2019	Winter Weather	Winter	—	—	—	1	—	Forecast zone
16 Aug 1997	Heat	Heat	—	—	—	—	8	Forecast zone
2 Jun 2019	Lightning	Lightning	—	—	—	—	5	County
3 Aug 2002	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	67 mph	$1.5M	—	—	1	County
4 May 1996	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	—	$75K	—	—	1	County
3 Jun 2010	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	66 mph	$20K	—	—	1	County
11 Jun 2026	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	60 mph	—	—	—	1	County
29 Jul 2023	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	70 mph	$3.0M	—	—	—	County
21 Jul 1987	Tornado	Tornado	F0	$2.5M	—	—	—	County
23 Apr 1999	Hail	Hail	1.75 in	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
23 Apr 1999	Hail	Hail	1.00 in	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
17 Sep 2004	Tornado	Tornado	F2	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
16 May 2022	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	75 mph	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
29 Jul 2023	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	70 mph	$1.0M	—	—	—	County
6 Sep 1996	Storm Surge/Tide	Tropical	—	$500K	—	—	—	County
6 Sep 1996	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$170K	$50K	—	—	County
9 Jun 2018	Flood	Flood	—	$200K	—	—	—	County

Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.

Federal disaster declarations

Declared	Number	Type	Incident	Title	Programs
23 Jan 2026	EM-3631	Emergency	Winter Storm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
2 Apr 2020	DR-4512	Major disaster	Biological	Covid-19 Pandemic	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Mar 2020	EM-3448	Emergency	Biological	Covid-19	Public assistance
11 Sep 2018	EM-3403	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Florence	Public assistance
7 Mar 2016	DR-4262	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
26 Nov 2012	DR-4092	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
29 Oct 2012	EM-3359	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
17 Nov 2011	DR-4045	Major disaster	Severe Storm	The Remnants Of Tropical Storm Lee	Public assistance
27 Apr 2010	DR-1905	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms	Public assistance
16 Feb 2010	DR-1874	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
12 Sep 2005	EM-3240	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Public assistance
18 Sep 2003	DR-1491	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Isabel	Individual assistance, Public assistance
27 Mar 2003	DR-1458	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, And Mudslide	Public assistance
28 Feb 2000	DR-1318	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storms	Public assistance
6 Sep 1996	DR-1135	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Fran And Associated Severe Storm Cond	Individual assistance
13 Jan 1996	DR-1086	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)	Public assistance
25 Mar 1993	EM-3112	Emergency	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
23 Jul 1977	EM-3046	Emergency	Drought	Drought	Public assistance
26 Jan 1977	DR-525	Major disaster	Freezing	Ice Conditions	Individual assistance
23 Jun 1972	DR-339	Major disaster	Flood	Tropical Storm Agnes	Individual assistance, Public assistance

Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.

Flood insurance claims

197820022026

NFIP claims by year of loss in Prince William County, 1978 to 2026 (hover for the amount paid).

Claims since 1978485

Paid claims308

Total paid$5.8M

Average paid claim$19K

Repetitive-loss properties274 severe

Residential policies in force9351.3% of 73,041 structures

Year of loss	Claims	Paid claims	Amount paid	Average paid
2026	2	1	$22,943	$22,943
2025	4	3	$122,863	$40,954
2024	3	2	$28,857	$14,429
2022	2	0	$0	—
2021	4	3	$16,735	$5,578
2020	27	23	$208,080	$9,047
2019	8	2	$6,824	$3,412
2018	32	21	$357,949	$17,045
2017	12	5	$41,505	$8,301
2016	7	4	$136,942	$34,235
2015	10	5	$16,248	$3,250
2014	31	24	$316,771	$13,199
2013	7	2	$48,371	$24,186
2012	10	4	$24,007	$6,002
2011	58	38	$649,043	$17,080
2010	7	1	$5,021	$5,021
2009	7	1	$1,216	$1,216
2008	37	25	$625,234	$25,009
2007	2	0	$0	—
2006	26	21	$231,447	$11,021
2005	6	1	$10,897	$10,897
2004	2	1	$30,000	$30,000
2003	28	22	$1,564,944	$71,134
2002	6	1	$1,238	$1,238
2000	2	0	$0	—

OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).

National Risk Index

Overall riskRelatively Moderatescore 83.2 of 100

Expected annual loss$69MRelatively Moderate

Social vulnerabilityVery Low

Community resilienceRelatively Moderate

Hazard (NRI)	Risk rating	Expected annual loss
Inland flooding	Relatively Moderate	$44,552,673
Heat wave	Relatively Moderate	$6,326,092
Tornado	Relatively Moderate	$4,554,619
Hurricane	Relatively Moderate	$4,168,004
Strong wind	Relatively High	$2,577,137
Earthquake	Relatively Low	$2,446,948
Lightning	Relatively High	$1,837,131
Hail	Relatively Moderate	$1,014,584
Winter weather	Relatively High	$596,888
Cold wave	Very Low	$404,316
Drought	Relatively Low	$274,496
Ice storm	Relatively Low	$154,885
Coastal flooding	Relatively Low	$110,420
Wildfire	Very Low	$9,000
Landslide	Very Low	$3,073

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.

Hurricane and tropical storm passes

Tracks within 100 miles33

Tracks within 50 miles16

Hurricane strength within 50 miles2

Storm	Year	Closest approach	Max wind while within 100 mi
Isaias	2020	78 mi	69 mph
Zeta	2020	74 mi	52 mph
Sandy	2012	98 mi	58 mph
Hanna	2008	75 mi	52 mph
Ernesto	2006	44 mi	46 mph
Isabel	2003	77 mi	58 mph
Bertha	1996	80 mi	69 mph
David	1979	65 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1963	77 mi	46 mph
Connie	1955	55 mi	69 mph
Diane	1955	34 mi	52 mph
Able	1952	59 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1949	39 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1945	38 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1944	62 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1943	49 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1934	28 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1933	15 mi	75 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1929	38 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	85 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	48 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1915	12 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1902	81 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1899	46 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1896	78 mi	69 mph

HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.

ZIP codes with flood claims

20111 125
22191 112
22193 43
20109 39
20112 29
22192 25
22025 20
22125 16
20169 15
22026 14
20155 12
20136 10
22172 10
20181 5

ZIP codes whose NFIP claims carry this county's code, with the number of claims. Five or more claims are needed for a ZIP page to be indexed.

Questions and answers

How often does it hail in Prince William County, VA?

NCEI records 86 hail events in Prince William County since 1950, in 26 different years; that is about 1.1 recorded events a year. 17 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.

Has Prince William County had a tornado?

Yes. NCEI records 15 tornadoes in Prince William County since 1950, 2 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 1.

When was the last federal disaster declaration for Prince William County?

23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 20 declarations since 1953.

How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Prince William County, and how much was paid?

485 NFIP claims since 1978, 308 of them paid, for $5.8M in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.

Is Prince William County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?

FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Relatively Moderate" for overall risk, "Relatively Moderate" for expected annual loss, "Very Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.

How does Prince William County compare with the rest of Virginia?

326.3 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 1.0 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.

Provenance

Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 1 Oct 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 1 Oct 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.