States › Virginia › Frederick County

Frederick County, Virginia

Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.

FIPS 51069 · 93,717 residents (2021) · 413 sq mi · dominant hazard Wind

Hail · 81Tornado · 10Flood · 150Wind · 290Winter · 193

Frederick County within Virginia. Dots: HailTornadoFloodWind event locations in the kept record. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 29 Sep 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.

The NCEI record lists 883 events for Frederick County, Virginia, between 1950 and 2026; damaging wind account for the largest share.

That is 213.7 events per 100 square miles, above the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 94.2 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.

15 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 2 deaths and 8 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $13M and crop damage at $15M.

FEMA has designated the county in 19 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).

National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 57 claims since 1978, of which 44 were paid, totalling $552K (about $13K per paid claim). FEMA counts 94 residential flood policies in force.

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Relatively Low" and its expected annual loss as "Relatively Low" ($20M a year across 18 hazards).

26 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 1 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.

15events, last 12 monthsto 30 Jun 2026

883events since 19502 deaths, 8 injuries recorded

19disaster declarationslast 23 Jan 2026

57NFIP flood claims$552K paid

Compared with Virginia and the United States

Measure	Frederick County	Virginia	US
Recorded events since 1950	883	57,789	1,977,440
Events per 100 square miles	213.7	146.4	56.0
Events per 10,000 residents	94.2	66.9	59.6
Events in the last 12 months	15	1,941	62,008
Deaths recorded by NCEI	2	239	26,435
Property damage (NCEI estimates)	$13M	$2.7B	$575B
NFIP claims per 1,000 residents	0.6	5.9	8.1
Average paid NFIP claim	$13K	$19K	$43K
Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years	16.0	4.3	16.1

County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.

Events by decade

Hail: 3Tornado: 2Wind: 3

Wind: 2

Hail: 12Tornado: 3Flood: 12Wind: 30Winter: 18Heat: 3Cold: 2Drought: 7Lightning: 4Other: 1

Hail: 21Tornado: 4Flood: 22Wind: 53Winter: 46Heat: 6Cold: 8Drought: 2Lightning: 8Fog: 8Other: 5

Hail: 38Tornado: 1Flood: 86Wind: 126Winter: 88Heat: 10Cold: 24Fog: 41

Hail: 7Flood: 30Wind: 74Winter: 41Heat: 4Cold: 11Fog: 15

01950s81960s21970s21980s921990s1832000s4142010s1822020s

Recorded events in Frederick County by decade and hazard group. HailTornadoFloodWindWinterHeatColdDroughtLightningFogOther NCEI recorded only tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm wind before 1996.

Trend: 675 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 184 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.

Events by type

Wind290

Winter193

Flood150

Hail81

Fog64

Cold45

Heat23

Lightning12

Tornado10

Drought9

Other6

Hazard	Events	Deaths	Share of state's events
■ Wind	290	—	1.3%	detail
■ Winter	193	1	1.9%	detail
■ Flood	150	1	1.8%	detail
■ Hail	81	—	1.3%	detail
■ Fog	64	—	3.7%
■ Cold	45	—	2.5%
■ Heat	23	—	1.7%
■ Lightning	12	—	2.2%
■ Tornado	10	—	1.1%	detail
■ Drought	9	—	1.1%
■ Other	6	—	0.2%

Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.

Largest recorded events

Date	Event type	Group	Magnitude	Property damage	Crop damage	Deaths	Injuries	Geography
16 May 2014	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$5K	—	1	1	County
14 Feb 2003	Winter Storm	Winter	—	$1.4M	—	1	—	Forecast zone
17 Sep 2004	Tornado	Tornado	F1	$1.0M	—	—	2	County
28 Jul 1997	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	—	$100K	—	—	1	County
13 Jul 1961	Tornado	Tornado	F2	$3K	—	—	1	County
14 Jan 1992	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	0 mph	—	—	—	1	County
15 Aug 1996	Lightning	Lightning	—	—	—	—	1	County
10 Jun 2008	Lightning	Lightning	—	—	—	—	1	County
10 Apr 1997	Frost/Freeze	Cold	—	—	$6.5M	—	—	Forecast zone
18 Sep 2003	High Wind	Wind	58 mph	$500K	$6.0M	—	—	Forecast zone
23 Apr 1999	Hail	Hail	3.50 in	$3.0M	—	—	—	County
19 Jan 1996	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$2.0M	—	—	—	County
1 Jul 1997	Drought	Drought	—	—	$2.0M	—	—	Forecast zone
23 Apr 1999	Hail	Hail	1.75 in	$1.5M	—	—	—	County
6 Sep 1996	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$160K	$250K	—	—	County
22 Jun 2001	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$400K	—	—	—	County
26 Jun 1997	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	86 mph	$250K	$10K	—	—	County
17 Sep 2004	Tornado	Tornado	F2	$250K	—	—	—	County
30 Aug 2022	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	55 mph	$250K	—	—	—	County
15 May 2004	Lightning	Lightning	—	$150K	—	—	—	County

Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.

Federal disaster declarations

Declared	Number	Type	Incident	Title	Programs
23 Jan 2026	EM-3631	Emergency	Winter Storm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
2 Apr 2020	DR-4512	Major disaster	Biological	Covid-19 Pandemic	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Mar 2020	EM-3448	Emergency	Biological	Covid-19	Public assistance
11 Sep 2018	EM-3403	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Florence	Public assistance
7 Mar 2016	DR-4262	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
26 Nov 2012	DR-4092	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
29 Oct 2012	EM-3359	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
27 Jul 2012	DR-4072	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds	Public assistance
27 Apr 2010	DR-1905	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms	Public assistance
12 Sep 2005	EM-3240	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Public assistance
18 Sep 2003	DR-1491	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Isabel	Individual assistance, Public assistance
27 Mar 2003	DR-1458	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, And Mudslide	Public assistance
28 Feb 2000	DR-1318	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storms	Public assistance
6 Sep 1996	DR-1135	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Fran And Associated Severe Storm Cond	Individual assistance
27 Jan 1996	DR-1098	Major disaster	Flood	Flooding, High Winds, And Wind Driven Rain	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Jan 1996	DR-1086	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)	Public assistance
25 Mar 1993	EM-3112	Emergency	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
23 Jul 1977	EM-3046	Emergency	Drought	Drought	Public assistance
23 Jun 1972	DR-339	Major disaster	Flood	Tropical Storm Agnes	Individual assistance, Public assistance

Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.

Flood insurance claims

197820022026

NFIP claims by year of loss in Frederick County, 1978 to 2026 (hover for the amount paid).

Claims since 197857

Paid claims44

Total paid$552K

Average paid claim$13K

Repetitive-loss properties80 severe

Residential policies in force940.3% of 34,302 structures

Year of loss	Claims	Paid claims	Amount paid	Average paid
2025	2	2	$15,941	$7,971
2024	3	2	$16,483	$8,241
2022	1	0	$0	—
2021	1	1	$2,829	$2,829
2018	7	6	$146,897	$24,483
2017	1	0	$0	—
2016	1	1	$2,957	$2,957
2014	2	2	$14,950	$7,475
2013	1	1	$6,701	$6,701
2012	4	4	$28,397	$7,099
2011	2	1	$903	$903
2005	1	0	$0	—
2004	6	6	$76,160	$12,693
2003	1	0	$0	—
2001	2	0	$0	—
1999	1	0	$0	—
1996	5	5	$123,246	$24,649
1992	2	0	$0	—
1988	2	2	$2,120	$1,060
1987	1	1	$2,775	$2,775
1981	1	1	$9,273	$9,273
1979	5	5	$60,580	$12,116
1978	5	4	$42,151	$10,538

OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).

National Risk Index

Overall riskRelatively Lowscore 44.7 of 100

Expected annual loss$20MRelatively Low

Social vulnerabilityVery Low

Community resilienceRelatively Moderate

Hazard (NRI)	Risk rating	Expected annual loss
Inland flooding	Relatively Low	$12,748,140
Hurricane	Relatively Low	$1,698,506
Heat wave	Relatively Low	$1,001,773
Tornado	Relatively Low	$881,529
Strong wind	Relatively Moderate	$879,309
Drought	Relatively Moderate	$874,435
Earthquake	Relatively Low	$633,416
Hail	Relatively Low	$523,044
Lightning	Relatively Low	$297,471
Cold wave	Very Low	$168,943
Winter weather	Relatively Moderate	$147,313
Wildfire	Very Low	$105,223
Ice storm	Very Low	$23,177
Landslide	Relatively Low	$21,500
Avalanche	Very Low	$75

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.

Hurricane and tropical storm passes

Tracks within 100 miles26

Tracks within 50 miles9

Hurricane strength within 50 miles1

Storm	Year	Closest approach	Max wind while within 100 mi
Zeta	2020	97 mi	52 mph
Sandy	2012	67 mi	58 mph
Ernesto	2006	86 mi	46 mph
Isabel	2003	54 mi	58 mph
David	1979	13 mi	46 mph
Connie	1955	89 mi	58 mph
Diane	1955	29 mi	46 mph
Hazel	1954	89 mi	81 mph
Able	1952	65 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1949	42 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1945	92 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1943	81 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1934	42 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1933	67 mi	63 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1929	92 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	37 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1915	46 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1899	99 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1896	24 mi	69 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	56 mi	63 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	36 mi	75 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	57 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1885	20 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1878	63 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1878	59 mi	92 mph

HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.

ZIP codes with flood claims

22601 32
22603 18
22602 11
22637 6
22604 5

ZIP codes whose NFIP claims carry this county's code, with the number of claims. Five or more claims are needed for a ZIP page to be indexed.

Questions and answers

How often does it hail in Frederick County, VA?

NCEI records 81 hail events in Frederick County since 1950, in 29 different years; that is about 1.1 recorded events a year. 8 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.

Has Frederick County had a tornado?

Yes. NCEI records 10 tornadoes in Frederick County since 1950, 2 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 0.

When was the last federal disaster declaration for Frederick County?

23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 19 declarations since 1953.

How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Frederick County, and how much was paid?

57 NFIP claims since 1978, 44 of them paid, for $552K in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.

Is Frederick County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?

FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Relatively Low" for overall risk, "Relatively Low" for expected annual loss, "Very Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.

How does Frederick County compare with the rest of Virginia?

213.7 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 0.6 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.

Provenance

Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 29 Sep 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 30 Sep 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.