States › Virginia › Warren County

Warren County, Virginia

Recorded hazard history: storm events since 1950, federal disaster declarations since 1953, flood insurance claims since 1978, and FEMA's risk index.

FIPS 51187 · 40,925 residents (2021) · 215 sq mi · dominant hazard Winter

Hail · 33Tornado · 3Flood · 115Wind · 179Winter · 184

Warren County within Virginia. Dots: HailTornadoFloodWind event locations in the kept record. Boundaries: US Census Bureau.

NCEI notes that Storm Data is compiled from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service, other federal, state and local agencies, the media and the public; that property and crop damage figures are estimates; and that some events are recorded by NWS forecast zone rather than by county. FEMA notes that NFIP claim records are redacted and aggregated to protect the privacy of policyholders. NCEI storm records through 30 Jun 2026; OpenFEMA declarations refreshed 1 Oct 2026; NFIP claims as of 8 Sep 2026.

Warren County, Virginia, has 696 weather events in the NCEI Storm Events record since 1950, most of them winter storms and snow.

That is 324.4 events per 100 square miles, above the Virginia figure of 146.4, and 170.1 per 10,000 residents against 66.9 statewide.

18 events fall in the 12 months to 30 Jun 2026. NCEI attributes 1 death and 9 injuries to events in the county, with property damage estimated at $52M and crop damage at $6.5M.

FEMA has designated the county in 23 federal disaster declarations since 1953; the most recent is Severe Winter Storm (emergency, 23 Jan 2026).

National Flood Insurance Program policyholders in the county filed 370 claims since 1978, of which 306 were paid, totalling $6.8M (about $22K per paid claim). FEMA counts 136 residential flood policies in force.

FEMA's National Risk Index rates the county's overall risk as "Very Low" and its expected annual loss as "Very Low" ($13M a year across 18 hazards).

27 tropical storm or hurricane tracks in the HURDAT2 record passed within 100 miles of the county's centre at tropical-storm strength or more, 1 of them within 50 miles at hurricane strength.

18events, last 12 monthsto 30 Jun 2026

696events since 19501 death, 9 injuries recorded

23disaster declarationslast 23 Jan 2026

370NFIP flood claims$6.8M paid

Compared with Virginia and the United States

Measure	Warren County	Virginia	US
Recorded events since 1950	696	57,789	1,977,440
Events per 100 square miles	324.4	146.4	56.0
Events per 10,000 residents	170.1	66.9	59.6
Events in the last 12 months	18	1,941	62,008
Deaths recorded by NCEI	1	239	26,435
Property damage (NCEI estimates)	$52M	$2.7B	$575B
NFIP claims per 1,000 residents	9.0	5.9	8.1
Average paid NFIP claim	$22K	$19K	$43K
Claims per 100 policies in force, last 10 years	12.5	4.3	16.1

County-recorded events plus zone-recorded events whose forecast zone is named for the county. State and US rows include events recorded only by forecast zone. Rates use 2021 Census population and land area.

Events by decade

Wind: 1

Hail: 1Wind: 2

Hail: 2Tornado: 1Wind: 4

Wind: 1

Hail: 3Flood: 18Wind: 19Winter: 19Heat: 8Cold: 2Drought: 9Lightning: 2Other: 2

Hail: 9Tornado: 2Flood: 21Wind: 48Winter: 51Heat: 14Cold: 14Drought: 1Wildfire: 1Lightning: 4Fog: 7Other: 12

Hail: 16Flood: 46Wind: 72Winter: 77Heat: 9Cold: 19Fog: 46

Hail: 2Flood: 30Wind: 32Winter: 37Heat: 8Cold: 10Fog: 14

11950s31960s71970s11980s821990s1842000s2852010s1332020s

Recorded events in Warren County by decade and hazard group. HailTornadoFloodWindWinterHeatColdDroughtWildfireLightningFogOther NCEI recorded only tornadoes, hail and thunderstorm wind before 1996.

Trend: 475 events in the 20 years to 2025 against 201 in the 20 years before. Reporting practice changed in 1996 and again with automated reports in the 2000s, so decade totals measure the record as much as the weather.

Events by type

Winter184

Wind179

Flood115

Fog67

Cold45

Heat39

Hail33

Other14

Drought10

Lightning6

Tornado3

Wildfire1

Hazard	Events	Deaths	Share of state's events
■ Winter	184	—	1.8%	detail
■ Wind	179	—	0.8%	detail
■ Flood	115	1	1.4%	detail
■ Fog	67	—	3.9%
■ Cold	45	—	2.5%
■ Heat	39	—	2.9%
■ Hail	33	—	0.5%	detail
■ Other	14	—	0.5%
■ Drought	10	—	1.2%
■ Lightning	6	—	1.1%
■ Tornado	3	—	0.3%
■ Wildfire	1	—	2.3%

Hazard pages exist for hail, tornado, flood, wind and winter where the county has at least 10 recorded events. "Other" covers heavy rain, debris flow, dust, funnel clouds and similar reports.

Largest recorded events

Date	Event type	Group	Magnitude	Property damage	Crop damage	Deaths	Injuries	Geography
6 May 1998	Flood	Flood	—	$6K	—	1	—	Forecast zone
29 Oct 2012	High Wind	Wind	58 mph	—	$100K	—	5	Forecast zone
6 Sep 1996	Flood	Flood	—	$40M	$2.0M	—	—	Forecast zone
4 Jun 2008	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	58 mph	$22K	—	—	2	County
15 Jun 2000	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	—	$40K	—	—	1	County
3 Apr 1996	Flood	Flood	—	$15K	—	—	1	Forecast zone
6 Sep 1996	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$6.0M	$500K	—	—	County
19 Jan 1996	Flash Flood	Flood	—	$2.0M	—	—	—	County
1 Aug 1999	Drought	Drought	—	—	$1.7M	—	—	Forecast zone
19 Jan 1996	Flood	Flood	—	$1.5M	$11K	—	—	Forecast zone
14 Feb 2003	Winter Storm	Winter	—	$1.3M	—	—	—	Forecast zone
1 Jul 1997	Drought	Drought	—	—	$1.0M	—	—	Forecast zone
6 Sep 1996	High Wind	Wind	—	$5K	$500K	—	—	Forecast zone
10 Apr 1997	Frost/Freeze	Cold	—	—	$400K	—	—	Forecast zone
25 Jul 2023	Thunderstorm Wind	Wind	70 mph	$250K	—	—	—	County
18 Sep 2003	High Wind	Wind	58 mph	$120K	$100K	—	—	Forecast zone
3 Aug 2002	Lightning	Lightning	—	$195K	—	—	—	County
4 Feb 1998	Ice Storm	Winter	—	$15K	$150K	—	—	Forecast zone
19 Sep 2003	Flood	Flood	—	$150K	—	—	—	Forecast zone

Ranked by deaths, then injuries, then NCEI's damage estimate. Deaths and injuries are NCEI counts (direct plus indirect); no personal details are recorded here.

Federal disaster declarations

Declared	Number	Type	Incident	Title	Programs
23 Jan 2026	EM-3631	Emergency	Winter Storm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
2 Apr 2020	DR-4512	Major disaster	Biological	Covid-19 Pandemic	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Mar 2020	EM-3448	Emergency	Biological	Covid-19	Public assistance
11 Sep 2018	EM-3403	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Florence	Public assistance
7 Mar 2016	DR-4262	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm And Snowstorm	Public assistance
26 Nov 2012	DR-4092	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
29 Oct 2012	EM-3359	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Sandy	Public assistance
27 Jul 2012	DR-4072	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Storms And Straight-Line Winds	Public assistance
20 Feb 2011	FM-2860	Fire management assistance	Fire	Smith Fire	Public assistance
27 Apr 2010	DR-1905	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storms And Snowstorms	Public assistance
12 Sep 2005	EM-3240	Emergency	Hurricane	Hurricane Katrina Evacuation	Public assistance
18 Sep 2003	DR-1491	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Isabel	Individual assistance, Public assistance
27 Mar 2003	DR-1458	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storm, Record/Near Record Snowfall, Heavy Rain,Floodind, And Mudslide	Public assistance
28 Feb 2000	DR-1318	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Winter Storms	Public assistance
6 Sep 1996	DR-1135	Major disaster	Hurricane	Hurricane Fran And Associated Severe Storm Cond	Individual assistance, Public assistance
27 Jan 1996	DR-1098	Major disaster	Flood	Flooding, High Winds, And Wind Driven Rain	Individual assistance, Public assistance
13 Jan 1996	DR-1086	Major disaster	Snowstorm	Blizzard Of 96 (Severe Snow Storm)	Public assistance
1 Jul 1995	DR-1059	Major disaster	Severe Storm	Severe Storms And Flooding	Individual assistance, Public assistance
25 Mar 1993	EM-3112	Emergency	Snowstorm	Severe Winter Storm	Public assistance
9 Nov 1985	DR-755	Major disaster	Flood	Severe Storms & Flooding	Individual assistance, Public assistance
23 Jul 1977	EM-3046	Emergency	Drought	Drought	Public assistance
10 Oct 1972	DR-359	Major disaster	Flood	Severe Storms & Flooding	Individual assistance, Public assistance
23 Jun 1972	DR-339	Major disaster	Flood	Tropical Storm Agnes	Individual assistance, Public assistance

Declarations in which FEMA designated this county, from the OpenFEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (v2). DR: major disaster; EM: emergency; FM: fire management assistance. Programs show whether individual or public assistance was made available.

Flood insurance claims

197820022026

NFIP claims by year of loss in Warren County, 1978 to 2026 (hover for the amount paid).

Claims since 1978370

Paid claims306

Total paid$6.8M

Average paid claim$22K

Repetitive-loss properties8211 severe

Residential policies in force1360.9% of 16,092 structures

Year of loss	Claims	Paid claims	Amount paid	Average paid
2025	3	2	$11,465	$5,733
2024	2	2	$8,047	$4,024
2018	10	10	$260,399	$26,040
2017	2	0	$0	—
2014	24	15	$121,772	$8,118
2012	1	0	$0	—
2011	16	12	$126,272	$10,523
2010	3	2	$19,050	$9,525
2006	2	1	$8,176	$8,176
2005	1	0	$0	—
2004	1	0	$0	—
2003	24	20	$189,675	$9,484
2000	1	0	$0	—
1998	1	0	$0	—
1996	192	172	$4,781,503	$27,799
1995	1	1	$50,000	$50,000
1993	9	5	$19,213	$3,843
1992	8	5	$14,237	$2,847
1990	3	3	$9,247	$3,082
1987	10	7	$10,538	$1,505
1985	49	43	$1,125,047	$26,164
1984	4	4	$23,368	$5,842
1979	3	2	$344	$172

OpenFEMA NFIP claims (v3, as of 8 Sep 2026), aggregated by year of loss; amounts are building, contents and increased-cost-of-compliance payments as recorded. Repetitive-loss counts from the NFIP Multiple Loss Properties file (2 Aug 2026); policies in force from the NFIP Residential Penetration Rates file (3 Aug 2026).

National Risk Index

Overall riskVery Lowscore 31.6 of 100

Expected annual loss$13MVery Low

Social vulnerabilityVery Low

Community resilienceRelatively Moderate

Hazard (NRI)	Risk rating	Expected annual loss
Inland flooding	Relatively Low	$10,006,376
Strong wind	Relatively Low	$593,921
Tornado	Very Low	$450,802
Heat wave	Relatively Low	$445,502
Drought	Relatively Low	$278,667
Lightning	Relatively Low	$272,193
Earthquake	Very Low	$264,543
Hurricane	Relatively Low	$263,058
Hail	Relatively Low	$199,605
Cold wave	Very Low	$78,318
Winter weather	Relatively Low	$64,766
Wildfire	Very Low	$26,414
Landslide	Relatively Low	$20,951
Ice storm	Very Low	$6,838
Avalanche	Very Low	$672

FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025 release. Ratings are FEMA's relative comparison of counties; expected annual loss is FEMA's modelled estimate of average yearly building, population and agriculture loss. See how to read the NRI.

Hurricane and tropical storm passes

Tracks within 100 miles27

Tracks within 50 miles10

Hurricane strength within 50 miles1

Storm	Year	Closest approach	Max wind while within 100 mi
Zeta	2020	77 mi	52 mph
Sandy	2012	85 mi	58 mph
Ernesto	2006	81 mi	46 mph
Isabel	2003	43 mi	58 mph
David	1979	26 mi	46 mph
Connie	1955	87 mi	58 mph
Diane	1955	9 mi	52 mph
Able	1952	60 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1949	21 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1945	78 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1944	88 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1943	86 mi	52 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1934	40 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1933	56 mi	63 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1929	78 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1928	56 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1915	31 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1902	91 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1899	82 mi	58 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1896	44 mi	69 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	35 mi	63 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	16 mi	75 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1893	76 mi	40 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1885	13 mi	46 mph
Unnamed Atlantic storm	1878	64 mi	58 mph

HURDAT2 best-track positions at tropical-storm strength (34 kt) or more, measured from the county's Census centre point; through the 2025 season. Distance from a track is not the same as the extent of the storm's wind, rain or surge.

ZIP codes with flood claims

22630 337
22651 11
22610 6

ZIP codes whose NFIP claims carry this county's code, with the number of claims. Five or more claims are needed for a ZIP page to be indexed.

Questions and answers

How often does it hail in Warren County, VA?

NCEI records 33 hail events in Warren County since 1950, in 15 different years; that is about 0.4 recorded events a year. 5 reports were golf-ball size (1.75 in) or larger.

Has Warren County had a tornado?

Yes. NCEI records 3 tornadoes in Warren County since 1950, 0 of them rated (E)F2 or stronger. Tornado deaths recorded: 0.

When was the last federal disaster declaration for Warren County?

23 Jan 2026: Severe Winter Storm, a emergency declaration for winter storm. The county appears in 23 declarations since 1953.

How many flood insurance claims have been filed in Warren County, and how much was paid?

370 NFIP claims since 1978, 306 of them paid, for $6.8M in total. FEMA publishes these figures redacted and aggregated; individual properties are not identified.

Is Warren County in the National Risk Index's high-risk band?

FEMA's National Risk Index (December 2025) rates the county "Very Low" for overall risk, "Very Low" for expected annual loss, "Very Low" for social vulnerability and "Relatively Moderate" for community resilience. These ratings are FEMA's relative comparison across all US counties.

How does Warren County compare with the rest of Virginia?

324.4 recorded events per 100 square miles against 146.4 statewide, and 9.0 NFIP claims per 1,000 residents against 5.9. The comparison table on this page shows each measure beside the state and national figures.

Provenance

Storm events: NOAA NCEI Storm Events Database, yearly details files through 30 Jun 2026 (public domain). Declarations: OpenFEMA DisasterDeclarationsSummaries v2, refreshed 1 Oct 2026. Flood claims: OpenFEMA NfipClaims v3 as of 8 Sep 2026; NfipMultipleLossProperties v1 (2 Aug 2026); NfipResidentialPenetrationRates v1 (3 Aug 2026). Risk index: FEMA National Risk Index, December 2025. Hurricane tracks: NHC HURDAT2 through 2025. Population and area: US Census Bureau, 2021 vintage. Built 1 Oct 2026; see the methodology and corrections pages. Hazard hubs: Hail · Tornado · Flood · Wind · Winter.